About Me

My career occupation consisted of 33.5 years as a Meteorologist (both private and Federal government).  I retired early at age 56.  I have a passion for investing, hiking, weightlifting, motorcycle riding, and firearm target practice.  I have approximately 24 years of personal investing experience.  This blog is meant to be informal, intended for those with novice to intermediate investing experience and it also helps me to learn more myself. 

Popular posts from this blog

AMAT (Applied Materials) is Trading at near Fair Valuation for those in Search of a Great Semiconductor Company!

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This morning, August 25th, 2025, I purchased a small amount of shares of AMAT.  The Fastgraphs chart below shows that the stock is trading at near fair valuation.  Thus, we have a great semiconductor company trading at near fair valuation.  If the stock falls more, I will add to my share count and dollar cost average down.     Here is a screen shot of the past 13 year performance of AMAT versus the S&P500:  Notice on the 13-year performance screen shot that with dividends reinvested, a $10,000 investment in October 2012 would be worth $184,000 today versus $56,000 for the S&P500.  AMAT had a compound growth of 25.51% versus a respectable 14.51% on the S&P500.  AMAT's dividend growth rate and compound dividend growth rate were 13-14% which is solid.   I am always in search of great companies that are trading at a fair valuation that have a history of thrashing the S&P500.  They can be difficult to find bu...
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Updated Price Targets for Amazon (AMZN) through 2027

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    Although Amazon (AMZN) is minus 1% YTD in 2025 as of close on 6/26/2025, it's 1-year performance was +12.14% and 5-year performance was +61.26%, nothing too glamorous.  Individual investor gains or losses will, of course, depend on what price(s) they bought shares at.  Valuation is hugely important when it comes to investment gains/losses.   When valuating Amazon, the Adjusted Operating Earnings (a metric used for most stocks) does not typically correlate well historically with the stock price.    AMZN:  Price Correlated with Adjusted Operating Earnings       Instead, a more reliable valuation metric is the price correlated with operating cash flow (OCF) seen in the chart below:  AMZN:  Price Correlated with Operating Cash Flow (OCF)       Since December 2022, the stock price has been following closer to the black line (current valuation), as opposed to the Normal P/OCF (blue line) or the Fair Valu...
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A Few Excellent Stocks Trading at or Near Fair Valuation that are Worth Adding to Positions.... [AMZN, AMAT, NVDA]

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 I will be adding modestly to my current positions in the following stocks that are trading near fair valuation that have strong growth projections:  Amazon [AMZN], Applied Materials [AMAT], and Nvidia [NVDA].   My goal is to buy high quality growth stocks (especially tech/AI related) at a reasonable price that have significant upside potential over the next 2-5 years and longer.  Regarding Amazon, here is a 10 year chart of it's performance with analyst projections through FY2027:  The black trace is the history of the stock price up to the present.  The price has generally been following the black "current valuation" line pretty well.  The red line is a projection for the next two years given the stock price continues to follow the "current valuation" line.  It shows potential for the stock to hit $365/sh by the end of 2027.  This is very close to the numbers from my June 27, 2025 article on AMZN.  This would represent a total ret...
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