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Showing posts from June, 2025

Current Valuation of META and Updated Price Targets through Dec 31, 2027

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My goal is to buy solid, well-managed companies with a competitive MOAT at a fair or undervaluation level that have strong forecast growth.  Ideally, these investments will beat the S&P500 going forward.  META is one of my favorite technology investments as it successfully incorporates AI into its advertising with returns feeding its earnings.  Let's take a look at how META has fared versus the S&P500 since 12/31/2012 below:  META's returns were slightly more than twice the returns of the S&P 500 with 30.47% compound growth versus 14.36% for the S&P 500 . That is called slaying the S&P 500 and these are the kind of companies that I want to own long-term (3-5+ years).   Valuation as of June 29. 2025: Since December 2021, there have been many opportunities to purchase shares of META when it has been undervalued (black price line below the orange Fair Value Ratio line).  However, most recently, META's price is trading at the orange Fa...

Updated Price Targets for Amazon (AMZN) through 2027

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    Although Amazon (AMZN) is minus 1% YTD in 2025 as of close on 6/26/2025, it's 1-year performance was +12.14% and 5-year performance was +61.26%, nothing too glamorous.  Individual investor gains or losses will, of course, depend on what price(s) they bought shares at.  Valuation is hugely important when it comes to investment gains/losses.   When valuating Amazon, the Adjusted Operating Earnings (a metric used for most stocks) does not typically correlate well historically with the stock price.    AMZN:  Price Correlated with Adjusted Operating Earnings       Instead, a more reliable valuation metric is the price correlated with operating cash flow (OCF) seen in the chart below:  AMZN:  Price Correlated with Operating Cash Flow (OCF)       Since December 2022, the stock price has been following closer to the black line (current valuation), as opposed to the Normal P/OCF (blue line) or the Fair Valu...